Severe Storms Likely Tomorrow, Wednesday

Spring has arrived, as our severe weather threat for tomorrow 3/30 and Wednesday 4/2 are on the rise. Overall, Wednesday appears to have the greater severe potential, though tomorrow needs to be watched closely as well.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook

The SPC has highlighted the entire area under an enhanced (level 3/5) risk. They do state that an upgrade to a moderate (level 4/5) risk is very possible in future updates. The next day 2 outlook is scheduled for 1230p CDT.

Overall, the setup for this potential outbreak looks pretty good. Both dynamic and thermodynamic fields are supportive of a widespread severe weather outbreak across the area. Lapse rates are pretty steep, meaning large to very large (>2") hail will be possible. Damaging wind gusts are also possible, given the jet max that will be located across the area. Expect some bowing segments and QLCS tornadoes to develop across the area. The greatest concern for QLCS tornadoes will be within any north/south oriented bowing segments which is more orthogonally oriented with the 0-3km shear.

The main time frame for severe weather across the area appears to be from roughly 4p-midnight or so from west to east.

Futurecast valid for 5p CDT Sunday

Futurecast shows a large complex of thunderstorms moving across the area, bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts, very large hail and some tornadoes. We will continue to monitor this severe weather threat over the coming hours.

Beyond day 2, another potential for robust severe weather moves into the area for Day 5 (Wednesday). The SPC has placed the entire area under a level 3 Enhanced risk.

SPC Day 5 Outlook

I think Wednesday has even better potential for severe weather. Dynamics look good, very reminiscent of past severe weather outbreaks. Strong moisture return and a strong cold front will move into the area. We will continue to monitor the threat over the next few days.

PM 3/29/25 931a CDT